Cork North-West constituency profile: Is two a crowd for Fine Gael in this three-seater?

Outgoing TDs: Michael Creed (FG – retiring), Michael Moynihan (FF), Aindrias Moynihan (FF)
Who are the candidates running in the Cork North-West constituency?
Cork North-West constituency returning officer website
Former Fine Gael minister for agriculture Michael Creed topped the poll here in 2020 but it was Fianna Fáil that took two of the three seats, with Fine Gael’s John Paul O’Shea missing out. Creed has added his name to the long list of retiring Fine Gael TDs. This time, O’Shea – a councillor since 2009 – will be hoping to take advantage of a possible Simon Harris-related bounce to nab that seat he missed out on. He currently represents the Kanturk electoral area of Cork County Council.
Although Creed topped the poll, he took a lower first-preference vote than the two Moynihans. Now, his cousin and namesake Cllr Michael Creed will run. It will be a tough race, as the number of seats in Cork North-West remains at three. Creed has been a member of Cork County Council for 17 years, representing the Macroom-Millstreet area. Could Cork North West be a bellwether constituency this time, indicating how other shoot-outs between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will play out? The on-the-ground constituency dynamic here mirrors a national question: Fianna Fáil are running two incumbents and Fine Gael are running two Councillors. Experience versus poll advantage: who has the edge?
The Green Party are running Colette Finn, a former researcher at University College Cork who spent more than 30 years in the hospital laboratory service. She is a former councillor and deputy lord mayor of Cork City Council. Becky Kealy is running for Aontú, after an unsuccessful run in 2020. She had a short campaign then, though, and still took 8.3 per cent of the first-preference vote.
Sinn Féin are running a candidate here, after deciding not to in 2020. The party has selected Nicole Ryan, a 31-year-old Millstreet native who became a drug education campaigner after she lost her brother, Alex Ryan, in 2016 when he consumed a deadly designer drug at a house party. He was one of six people rushed to Cork University Hospital after taking the synthetic drug 25I-NBOMe, and was just 18.
A big change is the move of more than 20,000 people in Ballincollig to the Cork North Central constituency. This is unlikely to benefit Aindreas Moynihan.
Cork North-West has more residents working in agriculture, forestry and fishing than nationally. With housing remaining as a big issue in this election, an interesting point to note is that Cork North-West has a lower proportion of households living in flats/apartments than nationally – 3.8 per cent compared with 11.8 per cent, according to an Oireachtas Library and Research profile. Households in Cork North-West are more likely to own their houses outright – 43.4 per cent compared with 36 per cent – or be owners with a mortgage or loan. Despite this, local politicians reported that housing emerged as a big issue in the local elections, as did infrastructure.
Possible outcome: 2FG, 1 FF